The Global Coffee Market in 2025

15.05.2025

The Global Coffee Market in 2025:

High demand, rising prices, and new opportunities

May, 2025

The global coffee market in 2025 is waking up to a new reality - steadily rising prices and intensifying demand. New trends are emerging, and coffee culture is developing in different countries such as Slovakia, Lithuania, Romania and Saudi Arabia. However, there are also challenges that coffee producers and sellers have to go through, such as price rising. For wholesale buyers, especially in the FMCG sector, this shift is more than just a trend - it's a challenge that demands smart sourcing and strategic planning.

Factors driving price increases:

  • Weather conditions - coffee production is very sensitive to weather conditions such as drought or frost, especially in Vietnam and Brazil
  • Increasing Global Demand – The growing popularity of coffee, especially in emerging markets, has led to consistent demand.
  • Sustainability Trends – Consumers' increasing focus on sustainable and ethically sourced coffee is driving up production costs and influencing pricing.
    The European Union introduced a sustainability requirement, mandating that all coffee imported into the EU must be certified as "sustainable" by January 1, 2025. Although this rule has been temporarily postponed, it triggered widespread panic-buying across Europe, as only a small portion of global coffee is certified, and these certifications.
  • Currency Fluctuations – Since coffee is traded in US dollars, exchange rate movements, especially for major producers like Brazil, have a significant impact on prices.

Coffee cash contract – 5-year historical performance


Source: TradingView

In addition to rising price, coffee traders face other challenges:

  • Rising competition: Coffee’s global appeal has created a promising business landscape, but this has also led to a saturated and highly competitive market.
  • Impact of climate change: Coffee cultivation is highly dependent on stable weather conditions. Shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns due to climate change are already affecting crop yields and could reshape how and where coffee is grown in the future.
  • Supply instability: With climate affecting production, the global coffee supply has become more unstable, driving price spikes in recent years. This unpredictability makes it harder for businesses to plan and manage budgets effectively.
  • Ethical challenges: There are growing concerns about the treatment of coffee farmers, many of whom struggle with low pay and limited resources. Efforts to cut production costs often come at the expense of fair wages and support for small-scale growers.

 

However, despite rising prices and other problems for coffee traders, demand for coffee continues to grow and appears to be an attractive area of trade.

Trends in the coffee market:

The global coffee industry is experiencing significant growth. By 2025, revenue from at-home coffee consumption - purchases made in supermarkets and convenience stores - is projected to reach $96.45 billion. Meanwhile, out-of-home sales, such as those in restaurants and cafés, are expected to bring in $376.70 billion, bringing the total projected market value to $473.15 billion. The at-home segment alone is anticipated to grow at an average annual rate of 2.96% between 2025 and 2029.

Factors such as demographic shifts and geographic expansion are driving the strong growth of the global coffee market, with coffee becoming a fashionable drink and appealing across generations. Its compatibility with flavored options and plant-based milks makes it appealing across generations and cultures, starting from the age of 15. 

Countries like Slovakia, Romania, Lithuania, and Saudi Arabia are seeing a rapid rise in coffee culture and consumption. Asia, being a home to 60% of the global population and a median age of just 31, represents a major growth area. Nations such as Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines are emerging as both important consumers and producers of coffee.

The European branded coffee shop market has experienced its strongest growth in five years.

  • 33 out of 50 European markets saw an increase in outlets, including 15 of the 20 largest markets.
  • The UK continues to lead as the largest branded coffee shop market in Europe with 11,456 outlets, followed by Germany (7,428) and Russia (5,157).
  • McCafé is the largest branded coffee chain in Europe, with 3,983 outlets across 26 countries, followed by Starbucks (3,534 outlets) and Costa Coffee (3,097 outlets).

Despite the challenges, 75% of industry leaders surveyed remain optimistic about future growth for branded coffee chains across Europe, though many operators are struggling with increasing costs despite strong sales.

Overall, the European coffee shop market is in good health, with major markets like the UK, Germany, France, Spain, and Italy seeing steady growth. Smaller markets, such as Croatia, Lithuania, and Armenia, are also developing rapidly.

Where to buy coffee?: 

Even in a challenging and fast-changing market, we’re proud to say: our coffee supply is strong and steady!

Our dedicated team works closely with reliable suppliers and producers to ensure consistent availability of essential coffee products - from instant sticks to premium roasted beans. We monitor the market daily, negotiate proactively, and optimize logistics to keep our prices competitive.

Looking to secure your coffee supply? We’re here to help!
Contact our sales team today to request our latest product list!

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